https://www.covasset.com/blog daily 0.75 2024-11-19 https://www.covasset.com/blog/post-election-economic-and-market-analysis monthly 0.5 2024-11-19 https://www.covasset.com/blog/a-21st-century-bank-run monthly 0.5 2023-03-15 https://www.covasset.com/blog/where-have-all-the-workers-gone monthly 0.5 2022-08-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/6e7dc18e-941e-4232-a210-269b7b329494/civilian-unemployment-se.jpeg BLOG - WHERE HAVE ALL THE WORKERS GONE? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/ee6ad904-c300-4566-b83b-50ce1b3754f8/civilian-labor-force-par.jpeg BLOG - WHERE HAVE ALL THE WORKERS GONE? - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://www.covasset.com/blog/coronavirus-and-the-markets-part-2 monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/coronavirus-and-the-markets monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/cannabis monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/what-is-5g-and-why-is-it-such-a-big-deal monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/retraction monthly 0.5 2020-04-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585845657037-NRLB877TCG7RPB2K79XP/10_Year_T-Note_10-30-18.png BLOG - OCTOBER 2018 RETRACTION https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585845685531-LTOMVCPKV9M1CINO8G1Q/VIX_10-30-18.png BLOG - OCTOBER 2018 RETRACTION https://www.covasset.com/blog/a-flattening-yield-curve-and-what-it-means monthly 0.5 2023-10-24 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585845961383-FWA41VK274YO36U0G6MW/Treasury-Long-Term-Yield-Spread-9-4-18.jpg BLOG - A FLATTENING YIELD CURVE AND WHAT IT MEANS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585846002495-NOAMCA5CFANNWAY4CCKR/Treasury-Yield-Curves-9-4-18.jpg BLOG - A FLATTENING YIELD CURVE AND WHAT IT MEANS As seen in the chart above, the current yield curve is flat, but not inverted. This is in contrast to the end of 2000, when the short end of the curve was significantly inverted. Not surprisingly, the economy went into recession in the second quarter of 2001. The yield curve from 12/31/2003, when the economy was out of recession, illustrates a normal upward sloping curve. So while we are not quite there, we are a lot closer than many would like. However, at the risk of calling down the wrath of the market gods, could this time be different for some reason? First off, we need to keep in mind that the flattening yield curve is only one indicator among many in a complex global economy. Other measures such as the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which is a blend of ten indicators, including a measure of yield flattening, continue to increase and hit a new high in July. Many other indicators, such as unemployment, purchasing managers indexes, capital expenditures, etc. also point to continued growth. Second, the 10-2 year spread may not be the best one to look at. Many economists prefer the 10 year to Fed Funds rate spread. Currently the Fed Funds rate is approximately 0.70% points below the two year rate, which indicates that the two year is pricing in almost three more Fed increases of 0.25% each. Even with those three increases, the yield curve would not invert. And some economists point to the spread between the two year and the Fed Funds as the one to watch, because it gets to the crux of credit creation. As long as the two year is above the Fed Funds rate, banks will keep lending to companies. When Fed Funds is higher, it starts being easier to lend money to the U.S. government than to companies and banks tighten lending standards thus leading to recession. Given that the Fed has repeatedly said it is data dependent many doubt that they would intentionally invert the curve without the threat of inflation getting out of control. And with structural factors, such as globalization, technology and aging demographics in the developed world, pushing it down, inflation has stayed relatively calm and in the range the Fed has said is acceptable. At the longer end of the yield curve, since the Fed started tightening in earnest at the end of 2016, U.S. ten year rates have not moved up as much as those at the short end. A general rule of thumb is that the U.S. ten year Treasury yield should equal the nominal U.S. GDP growth rate. In the second quarter of 2018, nominal U.S. GDP was up 7.4%, with a one year trailing average of 5.4%. If the ten year Treasury was there, there would be no talk of flattening and recession. However, except for a brief period in April and May, the 10 year U.S. Treasury rate has stayed below 3%. Some of the reason for this may lie with other major central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). They are still engaged in quantitative easing and artificially keeping their interest rates low across the entire yield curve. For example, recently the German 10 year paid 0.35% and the Japanese 10 year clocked in at a whopping 0.099%, averaging out to 0.22%. Average that with the U.S. nominal GDP growth of 5.4% and you get 2.81%, which was very close to the U.S. 10 year yield of 2.82%. With an intertwined global economy and financial markets, it is now easier than ever for money to flow wherever it needs to for the best returns. With their own yield artificially suppressed, it makes sense for European and Japanese investors to go abroad in search of higher returns, thus keeping a lid on longer term U.S. rates and distorting the predictive powers of the yield curve. From an operational point of view, banks have many tools at their disposal to mitigate the effects of a flattening or even inverted yield curve. Today, much of a bank’s loan portfolio is based on shorter term or floating rates, such Treasury Bills or LIBOR. This enables them to simply earn an essentially fixed spread on the difference between what they pay depositors and earn from borrowers. For the rest of the portfolio, they can easily borrow at lower long term rates and hedge their interest rate exposure. Or they can swap their fixed rate obligations for floating rate ones if that is preferable. Given these options, loan growth would not shrink because of banks unwillingness to lend, but only from a decrease in demand as projects become unprofitable due to higher rates, which could happen whether the yield curve was inverted or not. All of this does not mean that we are throwing caution to the wind ignoring the flattening yield curve. It has been a good indicator for many years and much of the logic behind why it should work holds. However, in this new age of global quantitative easing, its predictive power may be affected. That is why in managing our clients’ portfolios, we at Covenant are monitoring not only the yield curve, but also a wide range of indicators. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to your Covenant advisor. https://www.covasset.com/blog/trade-wars monthly 0.5 2020-04-02 https://www.covasset.com/blog/the-stock-market-has-predicated-9-out-of-the-past-5-recessions monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/the-new-tax-law-and-you monthly 0.5 2020-04-02 https://www.covasset.com/blog/the-bitcoin-craze monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/what-you-lose-by-not-using-your-advisor monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/what-you-lose-by-not-using-your-advisor-part-1-of-2 monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/brexit-will-britain-leave-the-european-uinion monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/sell-in-may-and-go-away monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585931460975-5NZOBGLEDHWHPMIO6LK5/SP500_6_Month_Returns_2.png BLOG - SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY? So in the end, what should one do? While on average, the May to November period is not as kind to ones portfolio as the other six months of the year, it has produced a positive return in the US stock market. And that is before taking into account transaction charges and taxes. So while tempting as it may be to sell out and hit the beach, there are many reasons to stay invested according to ones long term plan, while keeping an eye out for possible risks. It is times like this that an experienced investment advisor with an extensive knowledge of not only the markets, but also of your objectives can help keep your portfolio moving towards your goals. https://www.covasset.com/blog/the-alphabet-soup-of-credentialed-advisors monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/what-is-going-on-with-the-biotech-and-pharma-stocks monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585932372688-E237S5SL0N20ABSSDUON/IHE_5_year_chart.png BLOG - WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE BIOTECH AND PHARMA STOCKS? https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585932386507-0VKOPPGLX6GMONH43EFI/IBB_5_year_chart.png BLOG - WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE BIOTECH AND PHARMA STOCKS? Did a lot of promising drugs not pan out? Did expenses go through the roof and profitability fall apart? Did all of their best drugs go off patent? While there have been some fundamental setbacks, nothing that would account for such a wholesale revaluation of the entire industry. Then what has caused this? Well, a big part of it can be summed up by one word: politics. Towards the end of the summer, a scandal erupted that was tailor made for the tabloids. The price of a previously obscure and off patent drug (Daraprim) was raised over 5,000% by its new owner. That person Martin Shkreli, of Turing Pharmaceuticals immediately became Public Enemy number 1. Drug prices were suddenly front and center in everyone's consciousness. Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton quickly came out with a plan to control drug prices and Congress called hearings on the matter. Suddenly drug companies were in the spotlight and not in a good way. While something like this could generally be expected to blow over after the usual publicity gathering, events took an unexpected turn. Instead of Hillary Clinton running for the Democratic nomination practically unopposed, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont started gaining ground and became a serious contender for the nomination from Clinton's political left. This caused Hillary to tack away from the center to compete and caused drug pricing to stay on the political radar. You could almost track the price decline against the polls and primary results. And then, just when things looked like they were starting to stabilize, the Republican front runner, Donald Trump, began talking about drug importation and added it to his platform. The drug companies were now getting it from both sides. At this point it looks like the barrage may continue through November. So what to do? The fundamental picture for most of the companies is still very good. The drugs in their pipelines are full of promise. And now, many, but not all, of their stocks are trading at reasonable and even cheap valuations. Especially compared to their future potential earnings growth. Those where the pricing and fundamentals make sense we will continue to hold through the turmoil. Where we perceive that the fundamentals or valuation no longer make sense, we will remove those positions from your portfolio. However, if you own a sector ETF, you have to decide whether to buy or sell the whole industry. This is where having a long time horizon and a well diversified portfolio of individual stocks gives you an advantage. Instead of having to make a decision on the whole industry, as you would with an ETF, here at Covenant, we can use our over 100 years of combined experience and analyze each company one by one and decide whether the potential reward is worth the risk priced into the stock. https://www.covasset.com/blog/the-stock-market-has-been-predicated-9-of-the-past-5-recessions monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585933086097-HUC1OHILDKNZ55G5CE0C/GTM_JPAM_interyear_stock_market_declines_January_31_16.png BLOG - THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN PREDICATED 9 OF THE PAST 5 RECESSIONS In fact, according to Ned Davis Research, since the end of 1945, or 70 years, we have had 75 declines in the stock market of between 5 and 10% and 26 declines between 10 and 20%. The average time for the market to recover from these declines were 1 month for the 5-10% drops and 3 months for the 10-20% declines. Even for the 8 times the market dropped between 20 and 40%, it recovered on average in only 14 months. So an investor needs to ask themselves two questions. The first is: What is my time horizon? If you need the money within 14 months to two years, and can't wait for the market to recover, then those funds probably shouldn't be in stocks. At that point you may want to rethink either your risk tolerance or your asset allocation or both. The next question then, is where are we in the market and economic cycles? Is this one of the four false predictions, or five accurate ones so to speak? As mentioned in our latest quarterly newlsetter, on the negative side of the ledger are: fears of slowing/collapsing Chinese growth, concerns over the Fed's plans to raise short term interest rates, a manufacturing recession, deflationary pressures, and increasing geopolitical risks. On the plus side, you have solid employment growth, declining unemployment (see charts below from the February 5, 2016 Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Report), wages starting to pick up, and still growing service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585933142713-CNG37PC2MKABCTS9GV6Y/BLS_Jobs_report_Feb52016_charts.png BLOG - THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN PREDICATED 9 OF THE PAST 5 RECESSIONS With two thirds of the economy service based and growing, jobs still being generated at a rate above that needed to absorb new entrants, low gasoline prices serving as a tax cut, these and other factors lead to a Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) Index still in an uptrend. Recessions tend to be preceded by negative year over year readings in the LEI, usually with around a twelve month lead time. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585933184075-FZGH7DMZG3YIANMLJEKA/Conference_Board_LEI_Jan2016.png BLOG - THE STOCK MARKET HAS BEEN PREDICATED 9 OF THE PAST 5 RECESSIONS So at the moment, it would appear we are not going into a recession. In the meantime, the market is grappling with a large amount of uncertainty. Due to that uncertainty generating natural human fear, investors are taking every chance to drive down stocks at the merest hint of bad news, for that company, industry or even the market. While it can be painful, this type of situation can give us at Covenant an opportunity many other advisors don't have. Many advisors have shifted to using ETF's, either themselves or outsourcing it to others. Thus indiscriminate selling of industry ETF's drives down the prices of excellent companies far below where they should be as they are part of the same industry as bad companies. If a company in an industry announces bad news, the entire sector gets taken out, even if some of that bad news may be because the other companies are taking share from the announcer. With our disciplined approach, we at Covenant, can then invest in the beaten down stocks of excellent companies and better position your portfolios for the eventual rebound, while ETF based managers are left holding a mixed bag of both the good and the bad. https://www.covasset.com/blog/is-your-financial-advisor-really-looking-out-for-you monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/most-people-arent-wired-for-the-markets monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585933701369-L2EC0XT6PNW36Q9Q81CL/Anchoring_example.png BLOG - MOST PEOPLE AREN’T WIRED FOR THE MARKETS For example, a company is trading at $24 a share. It recently introduced some new products and growth has begun to really accelerate. So earnings are estimated to be $1.20 per share this year, up 20% from last year. So the market as a whole believes it is fair to pay 20 times expected earnings (P/E) for 20% growth. However, if the analysts have not increased the estimates enough because the are anchored to their old estimates, and instead the company turns out to earn $1.40, then instead of having paid a 20 P/E for 20% growth, the investor would have paid a 17 P/E for 40% growth. A bargain. And this doesn't even take into account the effects on future years earnings. As the quarterly earnings are released and estimates beaten, it can take a long time for the analysts to catch up. At Covenant, such sustainable growth that the analysts haven't quite caught on to the magnitude of, is just one of the things we look for in a stock investment for our client portfolios. While studies have shown that this works for individual stocks, in 2003, a study by Kothari (M.I.T.), Lewellen (Dartmouth) and Warner (Rochester) showed that this effect does not hold for aggregate data. So while we at Covenant can take advantage of this because we invest in individual stocks, portfolios using broad market based funds have one less arrow in their quiver. https://www.covasset.com/blog/understanding-volatility-will-keep-you-focused-on-your-longterm-goals monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585933934796-VLDFIMFS16QM7QQ3L71K/VIX_2008_to_111715.png BLOG - UNDERSTANDING VOLATILITY WILL KEEP YOU FOCUSED ON YOUR LONGTERM GOALS Beyond the titillating reporting style of business TV, recently there have been structural changes in the financial markets, along with the introduction and proliferation of new investment vehicles over the last several years that facilitate the quick drop or occasional freefall (called a flash-crash) of market indices. As an example, the passage of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill has essentially eliminated bank and broker proprietary trading desks. In the past, these trading desks would routinely commit large chunks of company capital to buy or sell large blocks of stock and provided a natural buyer or seller in size of US stocks. Also, technology has introduced algorithmic trading that is done by a computer program that requires no human engagement. Some of these programs actually automatically read the words in the headlines and news stories released throughout the day looking for a proliferation of positive (beat, raising expectations, strong etc.) or negative word flow (slowdown, disappointing, miss, slowing etc.) to initiate large buy or sell programs of the market indices or their subsectors. There are also programs that utilize breaches of technical patterns in stocks and indices to initiate sell or buy programs in an effort to prompt or rattle the traditional long-term investor into action. Beyond trading initiated by machines, you have the proliferation of Exchange Traded Funds or ETFs. ETFs trade intraday, and have become a preferred method of investing for institutional investors. These ETFs can reflect a group of stocks within a sector or sub-sector in the market, a whole index, and even an inverse of an index or a multiple of an index or market sector. With this expansion in ETF offerings, managers can rotate out of a sector and into another sector with just a few clicks of their computer taking them from fully invested to market neutral in a matter of seconds. ETFs now dominate the market volume, and with their use, a broad brush stroke is applied to an index or market sector (healthcare, financials, biotech, consumer staples etc.) where even the best stocks or worst stocks get dragged along in the short term action without regard to the stories behind the individual companies. Additionally institutional money managers have time horizons that are far different from the long term investor. Strategies can be designed to last a few hours, a few days or perhaps a few weeks. This has certainly increased the rotational aspect and freefall effect within the market itself. From our perspective, the broad uses of ETF strategies by managers has strengthened the opportunity to offer outperformance to clients via proper stock selection in the assembly of portfolios, as we keep our eye on long-term themes and client's long-term horizons. As asset managers, we keep our clients' long-term goals in mind, and filter out the noise around volatility with an understanding of what and whom is driving it, as well as the term of the volatility. We hope that this helps your understanding of some of the forces behind the hour-by-hour and day-by-day market movements and allows you to stay focused on your investment objectives. Remember much of the media hype should be treated more as entertainment as opposed to actionable information. https://www.covasset.com/blog/for-everything-there-is-a-season-even-stock-swoons monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585934196264-RFYFHJAF58GHH5C8ZZJ2/october-1233514-1278x956.jpg BLOG - FOR EVERYTHING THERE IS A SEASON EVEN STOCK SWOONS One possible explanation is embedded in our calendar and how companies report earnings. Most companies report earnings quarterly based on our calendar year. That means they report each quarter’s earnings in the month immediately following, so in April, July, September and the full year in January. Also, they tend to give a forecast for the coming year in January, either when they report earnings or soon thereafter. If companies miss earnings by a little in the first two quarters, investors may give them some more time. After all, there is still plenty of time for them to make up the small shortfall in the rest of the year. So investors leave the full year estimates alone. Then in August, after the July earnings season, many people, including investors, go on vacation and try to forget about the markets. When investors come back after Labor Day, they survey the market. They also start thinking about the next year and how companies will do and how they want their portfolios positioned. Coincidentally investors are bombarded with stories that remind them of horrible Fall periods in the past, such as the Great Crash of 1929, Black Monday in 1987, the Financial Crisis of 2008 and others. This tends to make investors skittish and more prone to sell on bad news. At the same time, company managements are well into the third month of the third quarter and are starting to get a sense of whether they will make their earnings forecasts for the quarter and the year. If they won’t they tend to get the bad news out as soon as possible, so they can focus on next year. This tends to go on into early October as companies that have so called hockey stick sales patterns won’t know if they make the numbers until after the quarter ends. If they will meet or exceed the forecasts, companies tend to wait until their regular announcement in October. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585934226874-LJY0NGC44X4XAL68XHYQ/end-of-season-1564611-639x425.jpg BLOG - FOR EVERYTHING THERE IS A SEASON EVEN STOCK SWOONS https://www.covasset.com/blog/the-china-syndrome monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585934505631-JPGK21YK7LACYUC9L6MY/image1.png BLOG - THE CHINA SYNDROME https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585934540608-1FNQ2EAU2AP82F5SQG70/image3.png BLOG - THE CHINA SYNDROME https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585934571460-B0P0A8CLNDISMXH2WB0H/image4.png BLOG - THE CHINA SYNDROME https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585934592558-XZOMX4DX3X5FJF9N3D45/image5.png BLOG - THE CHINA SYNDROME https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585934612714-1W1CZWGSRRR8UPBMBNFQ/image6.png BLOG - THE CHINA SYNDROME Currency charts courtesy of XE.com https://www.covasset.com/blog/cybersecurity-practical-advice-to-protect-your-private-information monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/why-use-an-advisor monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585935167480-YAHS9HYEXRKL74PEQWBR/sailboat.jpg BLOG - WHY USE AN ADVISOR? https://www.covasset.com/blog/the-key-choice-in-picking-an-advisor monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://www.covasset.com/blog/benchmarks-and-personal-financial-goals monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585935523349-B7ZGFU5XYSM1JRL029ZC/koch.jpg BLOG - BENCHMARKS AND PERSONAL FINANCIAL GOALS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585935553939-70L7PI7A84U9W0X0J75Y/assetclass.jpg BLOG - BENCHMARKS AND PERSONAL FINANCIAL GOALS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585935590061-QJ1U6WG8OBDLJPE9TCYI/Newton.jpg BLOG - BENCHMARKS AND PERSONAL FINANCIAL GOALS https://www.covasset.com/blog/time-horizons-and-forecasts monthly 0.5 2020-04-03 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585935886367-YS0H72IKCR7JI01NON7B/muchart1.jpg BLOG - TIME HORIZONS AND FORECASTS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585935921563-GEG7TBC3VOZKITUDC55V/muchart2.jpg BLOG - TIME HORIZONS AND FORECASTS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585935941367-YDB7PHHYGOZIXKAOFT7X/muchart3.jpg BLOG - TIME HORIZONS AND FORECASTS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585935973904-4T7Y3U9NGBQJMTUZ8D2B/mugraph1.jpg BLOG - TIME HORIZONS AND FORECASTS https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585936012835-OH2ADARQCQKASHMY42EY/mugraph2.jpg BLOG - TIME HORIZONS AND FORECASTS https://www.covasset.com/home daily 1.0 2024-03-27 https://www.covasset.com/contactus daily 0.75 2023-10-24 https://www.covasset.com/about-us daily 0.75 2023-12-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1586456598845-Z3KI0U2QNPLAROS4U2FF/man-and-woman-discussing-and-sharing-ideas-2977565.jpg ABOUT US https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1586456639949-Y4M9ZVCU10NC3YU9FXK5/woman-doing-a-presentation-2977547.jpg ABOUT US https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1586456789432-CIGVMQUAI5EFWYEG0ARR/black-and-white-business-chart-computer-241544.jpg ABOUT US https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1586456712279-YSGQ3I08T64FRPWMDYL1/man-and-woman-having-a-meeting-in-the-office-2977581.jpg ABOUT US https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585595475188-P8ZMZ189KRW5RC8FVG2E/firm-history.jpg ABOUT US https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585595511985-ZKSX1NEP5MIFZTP4L7UX/our-mission.jpg ABOUT US https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585595536152-ESLJ4IPJWLGNXCNRB22B/account-types.jpg ABOUT US https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585595766667-X9PO7MQB536C6LD7A8IQ/ca-our-team-1.jpg ABOUT US https://www.covasset.com/client-center daily 0.75 2025-04-01 https://www.covasset.com/faq daily 0.75 2023-10-27 https://www.covasset.com/privacy-policy daily 0.75 2026-03-19 https://www.covasset.com/our-team daily 0.75 2024-03-21 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585666367513-D0O2CI8NGGV8L7CEQ434/john-guarino-teamheadshot.jpg OUR TEAM - JOHN GUARINO President, Chief Investment Officer As President, John sets the overall strategic vision of Covenant and oversees all executive decisions. As Chief Investment Officer, he is responsible for setting the overall investment policy and directing investment strategy, research, portfolio management, trading, asset allocation and investment risk management functions. John founded Covenant Asset Management in 1999 and has worked as an investment portfolio manager since 1980. From 1985 to 1999, he was a Senior Vice President and Regional Manager in the Investment Management Division of Summit Bank and portfolio manager of the Pillar Equity Growth Fund. He received the industry’s prestigious Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1989. John has a B.S. in finance from Montclair State University and an M.B.A. in finance from NYU Graduate School of Business. John lives in Far Hills, New Jersey, with his wife Theodora and they have two children. jguarino@covasset.com (908) 879-4090 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585666477959-ZSW5NO4ZEP047OIVHDA7/tim-rowe-teamheadshot.jpg OUR TEAM - TIMOTHY W. ROWE Director of Business Development and Financial Planning Tim works with individuals to help them realize their wealth and retirement goals and assists Covenant’s other managers to design and implement financial planning strategies for clients. Tim also oversees Covenant’s outbound marketing efforts focusing on conducting financial information seminars and collaborating with other professionals. He is also responsible for the oversight and development of Covenant’s expansion into the Florida market. In addition, he is the Principal of Covenant Financial Resources, which provides marketing and other financial planning-related products and services. Prior to co-founding Covenant Asset Management in 1999, Tim spent 14 years with Summit Financial Resources as a Senior Financial Consultant, developing and monitoring financial plans for individuals and small businesses. Tim graduated with a B.S. in business from Slippery Rock University. He has been a registered representative and holds a Series 65 license. Tim lives in Succasunna, New Jersey, with his wife Martine, and they have two sons. trowe@covasset.com (908) 879-4620 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585666597546-XQO8Y3HKFQUKEXPXBGXC/chris-clark-teamheadshot.jpg OUR TEAM - CHRISTOPHER CLARK Senior Portfolio Manager Chris works one-on-one with clients, helping them achieve their investment objectives. Chris is also responsible for conducting fundamental research and portfolio construction and oversees Covenant’s technical analysis. He is also a member of the firm’s Investment Committee. Chris has been employed in the financial services industry since 1992. Prior to joining Covenant Asset Management in 1999, Chris spent four years as an investment portfolio manager at Summit Bank, where he co-managed the Pillar Equity Growth Fund. Chris has a B.S. in finance from Lehigh University and received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1998. He lives in Hoboken, New Jersey, with his wife April and three daughters and a son. Chris.clark@covasset.com (201) 213-1952 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585666674713-04GPBOWAO5YRBY2TIRUU/don-weir-teamheadshot.jpg OUR TEAM - DON WEIR Senior Portfolio Manager Don is an experienced industry professional focused on helping high net worth individuals and families achieve their financial goals and objectives. In addition, Don participates in Covenant’s investment research effort and portfolio construction. He is also a member of the firm’s Investment Committee. Don’s investment career of more than 30 years began at Prudential in private placements and leveraged buyouts, and he eventually oversaw the management of more than $1 billion of institutional and mutual fund portfolios. Later, he joined Merrill Lynch, where his responsibilities included managing asset allocation portfolios for a $14 billion mutual fund wrap program and $3 billion of separate accounts. More recently, Don served as Senior Vice President and regional investment director for wealth management at a large regional bank. He joined Covenant Asset Management in 2010. Don graduated from Dartmouth College with a degree in Liberal Arts and later earned his M.B.A. from Dartmouth’s Tuck School of Business Administration. He resides in Morristown, New Jersey, with his wife, Maureen. dweir@covasset.com (908) 879-5330 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585666809905-V2U0M4S6XEWFX2872IID/mark-ukrainskyj-teamheadshot.jpg OUR TEAM - MARK UKRAINSKYJ Senior Portfolio Manager Mark is an experienced wealth management professional focused on helping high net worth individuals and families determine and achieve their financial goals and objectives. This involves Mark’s active participation in Covenant’s investment research effort and portfolio construction. He is also a member of the firm’s Investment Committee. Mark has worked in the financial services industry since 1988 in various positions. Prior to joining Covenant Asset Management in 2013, Mark spent 13 years at AEPG Wealth Strategies, an independent wealth manager, where he served as Chief Investment Officer. Mark received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1998, and he is currently the Chairman of the New York Society of Security Analysts. Mark has a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania and an M.B.A. in finance from the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. He lives in Westfield, New Jersey, with his wife Stacey, and they have two sons. mukrainskyj@covasset.com (908) 879-7110 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585666877377-89H9FTEETYMNNLTBEVJV/lucy-maher-teamheadshot.jpg OUR TEAM - LUCY MAHER Client Services / Portfolio Administrator Lucy is responsible for client administration and oversees and manages all non-investment related activities within Covenant, including human resources and regulatory issues. She joined Covenant Asset Management in 1999 and has worked in the banking and trust industries for her entire career. Previously, she spent 12 years as a Trust Officer and Operations Manager for one of the largest trust companies in Canada. After moving to the United States with her family, Lucy joined Summit Bank in 1994 in the Employee Benefits Department and later transferred to the Investment Management Division, where she was an Assistant Vice President and office manager. Lucy received her associate’s degree from Humber College in Ontario. She and her husband Kevin live in Charlotte, North Carolina, and have three adult children. lmaher@covasset.com (908) 879-5270 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585666985210-UOZJRF6FR4QANVP54WAA/liz-regit-enyingi-teamheadshot.jpg OUR TEAM - LIZ REGIT Client Services / Portfolio Administrator Liz is responsible for a variety of administrative activities within the office, as well as designing marketing materials and preparing for and helping present educational seminars and webinars. Before joining Covenant Asset Management in 2002, she was employed in office and banking support positions and in retail customer service. Liz attended the University of Delaware and County College of Morris in pursuit of a degree in business administration/marketing. She lives in Hackettstown, New Jersey, with her twin son and daughter. eregit@covasset.com (908) 879-2360 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/ce26077f-39fa-4784-a8c2-48a154cd5b77/thumbnail_IMG_4060.jpg OUR TEAM - MONIKA SAWICKI Client Services / Portfolio Administrator Monika joined Covenant Asset Management in 2019. She is responsible for a variety of systems projects and administrative activities including maintaining accounts, updating internal reporting and creating system workflows for compliance. Monika has worked in the legal and financial sector for 23 years. Working first as a paralegal for The Law Offices of Michael A DeMiro and then moving into banking and lending at Spencer Savings Bank. She then became a Team Leader and Process Specialist in real estate lending at Weichert Financial Services. Monika has also worked with a non-profit organization as a Lead Coordinator prior to joining Covenant . Monika is a graduate of Kean University where she earned her Bachelor of Science in 2003. She also completed a Paralegal Studies Certificate Program from Montclair State University in 2004 and received her Master’s Degree in Compliance and Regulation from Montclair State University in 2007. Monika lives in Chester, New Jersey with her husband, Greg, and their two young sons. msawicki@covasset.com (908) 879-5330 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/58fa2424-3c72-49af-9404-7d4840dbbef1/thumbnail_IMG_4072.jpg OUR TEAM - BILL CUNLIFFE Chief Compliance Officer and Portfolio Manager Bill is a graduate of the University of Cambridge, England, where he earned a BA in Aerospace Engineering, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he received his Masters in Engineering. Bill began his career in finance in 2003 at a quantitative hedge fund in London before moving to Charlotte, NC to become a founding member of Elevation Securities, a registered institutional broker-dealer. Bill subsequently co-founded Variant Perception, a macro-economic research service for investors, where he served as CEO prior to joining Covenant. He holds a Series 65 license. Bill lives in Gladstone, NJ with his wife, Laura, and their three children. bcunliffe@covasset.com https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1594918104367-1V069FP8NW4YWELJ2718/Gabe+headshot.jpg OUR TEAM - GABE ROWE Portfolio Manager As a new member of the team, Gabe participates in Covenant’s investment strategy meetings and assists in the firm’s investment research efforts. He also assists with marketing and in the preparation of educational seminars. Before joining Covenant Asset Management in 2018, Gabe graduated from Florida State University with a B.S. in Finance. He is a registered representative and holds a Series 65 license as well as a Life Insurance license. He currently resides in Far Hills, New Jersey. growe@covasset.com (908) 888-8181 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1594918197633-V7NDF5AOAJDL258K6JAO/3_TD_Ameritrade_Orlando2020_David_Guarino-12497%281%29.JPG OUR TEAM - DAVID GUARINO Portfolio Manager David is an investment advisor representative. He has an undergraduate degree from Samford University and received his M.B.A in Finance from Regent University. David also received his Chartered Financial Consultant (CHFC)* designation from the American College of Financial Services. Earning the CHFC charter demonstrates that you have gained the knowledge and learned the skills needed for providing financial planning advice covering topics such as income tax, retirement, risk management, estate planning, and investments. He is also a member of the firm’s investment Committee. David has been employed by Covenant Asset Management since 2020. David lives in Chester, New Jersey, with his wife Julia, and their two children. dguarino@covasset.com (908) 879-7090 https://www.covasset.com/form-adv daily 0.75 2026-03-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585667530514-LGEUSBXFR2O2L6WSHM7D/white-paper-and-silver-fountain-pen-955394.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585667711158-UG09Y3FKWQIFVCHNP5GU/app-blur-business-close-up-270669.jpg https://www.covasset.com/covenantinvestmentperspectives daily 0.75 2026-01-05 https://www.covasset.com/archives daily 0.75 2023-10-27 https://www.covasset.com/our-services daily 0.75 2023-12-08 https://www.covasset.com/our-philosophy daily 0.75 2023-12-08 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585682126778-THUOSW1BKD8ROQQ6XVN8/equity-investment-principals-1.jpg https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5e7ccaa8fd3dc553edc8e8a1/1585682103691-J19WTQP3KOB2E0NCI7UJ/risk-management.jpg https://www.covasset.com/get-started daily 0.75 2020-03-29 https://www.covasset.com/get-started/p/relationship-with-youothers-dw7se monthly 0.5 2019-07-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ced8e1d5fd4c700018dd761/1560190004400-XTA0DF0S9WOZJUG994C8/Stocksy_txp824ffa5crXt000_Original_845035.jpg Get Started - Relationship with You+Others https://www.covasset.com/get-started/p/relationship-with-others-pdrt5 monthly 0.5 2019-07-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ced8e1d5fd4c700018dd761/1560189982811-KFAJF1TCUH1SXZ827UMC/Stocksy_txp824ffa5crXt000_Large_844923.jpg Get Started - Relationship with Others https://www.covasset.com/get-started/p/relationship-with-you-s7f3p monthly 0.5 2019-07-05 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5ced8e1d5fd4c700018dd761/1560189874730-3B0TSLDUHTQ93497V3L8/Stocksy_txp824ffa5crXt000_Large_844934A.jpg Get Started - Relationship with You